Details

At this early stage in the election campaign the result here in Newmarket-Aurora is too close to call. 

The CBC’s Poll Tracker and expert number-cruncher, Éric Grenier, tells us the NDP is haemorrhaging support across the country and much of it is going to the newly ascendant Liberals. 

We don’t know yet who will be running for the NDP. Nominations close on 7 April and there will be a complete list of candidates posted on the Elections Canada website on the 9th.

Advance voting begins in just over three weeks (on 18 April) so the Parties and the candidates have to hit the ground running.

Time to debate

On Monday I ran into the Liberal candidate, Jennifer McLaughlan, whose team was putting the finishing touches to the Campaign HQ at Main and Botsford – a terrific location. 

I asked her if she would be participating in any election debates and, without missing a beat, she told me she would be there. I was left wondering if her Conservative opponent, Sandra Cobena, would be quite so forthright or would she duck out of any invitation like so many of her Conservative predecessors. I hope she'd turn up. But the omens are not good.

Dawn Gallagher Murphy, the PC’s newly re-elected MPP, always boycotts debates. ‘Family emergency” was an early favourite but then she dropped all pretence and didn’t bother with excuses.

In the 2021 Federal Election here in Newmarket-Aurora, Conservative candidate, Harold Kim, boycotted the debates, citing diary clashes. And in the 2019 Federal Election Lois Brown was a no-show at the debate. 

Consequential

But this election is different. It is truly consequential. We face an erratic and unhinged Donald Trump who talks enthusiastically about Canada becoming the 51st state. He mocked Trudeau as Governor of the “Great State of Canada” and ignorantly boasts there is nothing we produce that the United States needs. 

So this is not another “business as usual” election. Far from it.

It is, therefore, a tragedy that the Chamber of Commerce will not be organising a candidates’ debate. Their Chief Executive, Chris Emanuel, told me on Monday they would not be taking the lead on organising a debate:

“We have expressed our willingness to partner with orgs (like the media) but we don't have the capacity to run all of the logistics like we once did.”

Full of hope, I contacted Newmarket Today who told me:

“We will not be organizing an election debate, it's not something we have the resources for at the moment.” 

So it looks as if it will be left to citizens’ groups to organise something but if it is not “official” experience tells us some candidates may not show up. 

Optional add-on

Debates are not an optional add-on to a properly functioning democracy. They are absolutely central.

When there are big policy differences between politicians a debate will elucidate. I recall Newmarket Mayor John Taylor demanding a debate in 2022 with Ford’s then Housing Minister, Steve Clark, who later presided over the Greenbelt scandal (and claimed ignorance of what was going on under his nose). 

But here we are, at a crisis moment, and, shockingly, we have no debate to test the candidates. Voters need to see for themselves how the candidates measure up. Are they quick on their feet? How good is their grasp of policy? Can they persuade voters to support their platform? How would they deal with Trump?

Disturbing Trend

Two years ago, I wrote about the disturbing trend where candidates boycott debates when they see no advantage in attending. Back then I floated the idea of giving municipalities powers (if they don’t already have them) to organise election debates through an arms-length, independent agency if no other respected and independent third party was prepared to do so. If municipalities can appoint wholly independent people as Integrity Commissioners then why not let them appoint Debates Commissioners?

Of course, candidates could still choose to ignore an officially organised debate but I think the voters would notice.

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Details

Jennifer McLauchlan, the Liberal wannabe MP for Newmarket-Aurora in the forthcoming Federal Election, turns out to be a bit of a disappointment. At least to me. 

She is the type of politician who sticks with pleasantries, unable or unwilling to engage in discussion in case she says the wrong thing.

Earlier today, I wander down to the Seniors’ Centre on Davis Drive where I learn that my old friend Dan Deeson is giving one of his periodic talks on electoral reform. He has been doing this for many years, making sense of proportional voting systems and pointing to the failure of First-Past-the-Post.

It’s a public meeting open to all.

I arrive early. Jennifer McLauchlan comes towards me and introduces herself. I smile and say hello. I say I know who she is, pointing to the giant name tag with the Liberal logo hanging around her neck. In fact, it’s the first time we’ve met.

Keeping her thoughts to herself

Then it’s over to Dan who walks us through the various alternatives to First-Past-the-Post. From time-to-time people ask questions or make comments but our Liberal candidate stays mum, keeping her thoughts to herself.

I have some issues with the “Fair Votes Canada” approach. I strongly believe any change to the voting system must be validated through a referendum. (I also believe a change will never happen in Canada unless the leaders of the major parties are all signed up for it.)

In recent elections the drop in turnout has been a big concern. Dan gets questions about compulsory voting. What do they do in Australia?

I ask about PR in Israel where the entire country is, in effect, treated as one riding. There, the religious parties have disproportionate influence and the tail wags the dog.

Clearly, all PR systems aren’t equal. 

Dan tells me there is no threshold for representation in the Knesset. Most PR countries have a threshold (say 5% of the total national vote) for representation in the national parliament.

Now Dan puts up an interesting slide showing the countries that moved from FPTP to a proportional system – the last being New Zealand in 1993. I am interested in how these countries managed the change. 

Sponge

As Dan wraps things up I turn towards Jennifer and ask for her views. Is she happy with FPTP or would she like to see a change?

She says she is just listening. She says she is a sponge soaking up what people have to say.

Oh dear!

Exasperated, I say: 

“For goodness sake. You are running for the Federal Parliament. You must have a view!”

Listen and learn

But no. Her job, apparently, is to listen and learn; not to offer a view, even if it is provisional.

I tell her she couldn’t get away with that answer on an election debate stage in front of voters. 

We’ve just had a Provincial election where the Liberals got 31% of the vote and 11% of the seats in the legislature.

No view? 

Apparently not. 

Public opinion

I’ve always believed politicians have a duty to shape and lead public opinion. It’s in the job description – or should be.

What if Jennifer McLauchlan were asked about the conflict in Gaza? Or about the melting of the permafrost in the Arctic? Or banning handguns? Or the thousand other questions that candidates for the Federal Parliament should be able to field.

On the back of the Provincial election results she could have told me the result was clearly unfair to the Liberals but that’s the system and she wasn’t going to campaign to change it. That would have satisfied me. 

Disengagement

But to say nothing and to disengage completely from the argument – having sat through a 50-minute presentation – was jaw-dropping.

I voted for the Liberal Chris Ballard in last month’s Provincial election. 

If I had asked him for his views on electoral reform and he told me he was a sponge, soaking up views on the issue before he ventured an opinion, he wouldn’t have got my vote.

People seeking political office at the highest level have a duty to make their views known on the big issues of the day. The perceived unfairness of an electoral system which gives the NDP official opposition status at Queen’s Park with many, many fewer votes than the Liberals is, surely, worthy of comment?

Saying you are there to listen to people – rather than express an opinion, tentative or otherwise - is a complete cop-out.

How on earth did it come to this?

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Note: Vote totals and percentages exclude all minor parties.

Details

Mark Carney will be sworn in as Canada’s 24th Prime Minister later today. 

I learn from Larry Elliott – the economics editor of the UK’s Guardian newspaper throughout Carney’s time as Governor of the Bank of England – that Carney had 

“…a volcanic temper and Bank staff were wary of getting on the wrong side of him. As a governor he was respected but not especially liked.”

The volcanic temper was news to me - as it probably is to the Liberal Party members who voted for him. But I am sure they were all beguiled by the pollsters’ predictions that put Carney within touching distance of the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre.

To them, he is clearly the man of the moment.

Heavy lifting

Carney won a landslide victory here in Newmarket-Aurora, which mirrored the national vote. The 317 people – card carrying Liberals – who actually participated in the ballot constitute a tiny fraction of the voting age population. Under half of one per cent.

This isn’t a complaint. Members of political parties do the heavy lifting for the rest of us.

We don’t have mass membership political parties in Canada. 

Selling memberships

But “membership” numbers inflate massively during Party leadership contests when, astonishingly, the wannabe leaders can sell Party memberships to their supporters.

This leads to clientism and cronyism and should be outlawed. I take the old fashioned view that people participating in Party leadership votes should have been members of the Party for, say, six months beforehand. Just to show some affinity to the Party in question.

And it’s not just the Liberals I’m getting at. The Conservatives too sell memberships on an industrial scale. 

Soft underbelly

The nominations process is the soft underbelly of Canadian democracy.

In some ridings, memberships balloon into the thousands during nomination contests for candidates for the House of Commons. These are the phoney members who disappear as soon as the contest is over. 

In some safe ridings, winning the Party nomination is a passport into the House of Commons.

Getting selected is the challenge. Getting elected is the easy part.

Quest for truth

The former Liberal MP and one time wannabe Liberal Prime Minister, Ruby Dhalla, who was disqualified by the Party, is on a "quest for truth". 

She wants to know what happened to the 250,000 “registered” Liberals who didn’t make it through the certification process.

Seems to me that if her registered Liberals can’t be bothered to answer a few simple questions to prove they are who they say they are (and in a vote that will decide the next Prime Minister of Canada) then what’s the point of being a “registered Liberal” in the first place?

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Note 1: The Liberal results by riding are here.

Note 2: There is no membership fee to join the Liberal Party of Canada. 

Click "Read More" for the Globe and Mail report of 11 March 2025: Fewer than 40% of 400,000 registered Liberals voted in leadership race

Details

Last week, more people in Newmarket-Aurora didn’t vote for Dawn Gallagher Murphy than did. But she was still 2,537 votes ahead of her only serious challenger, the former Liberal Cabinet minister, Chris Ballard. 

But if the vote for the centrist Liberals (17,723) had combined with the vote for the NDP (2,709) then, interestingly, the Progressive Conservatives' Gallagher Murphy (20,260) would have lost to my hypothetical LibDipper by 172 votes. 

Of course, this is just a daydream. We are doomed to see this election outcome replayed again and again until the centre left parties get their act together. Too often the Liberals and NDP see themselves as mortal enemies who repeatedly split the vote allowing the PCs to waltz through the middle.

Mapping support for the Parties

Voting for the conservatives was, as usual, heaviest in Stonehaven and Copper Hills and the south eastern part of the riding. The Liberals did better in their traditional territory, the central spine of the riding between Yonge and Bayview with support concentrated in the old downtown area with its leafy streets and character. The NDP did not poll above 10% in any polling division. 

The Liberals had the highest vote in the advance polls. The full results are here with details of voting at retirement homes, condos and other specially designated polling places.

Voter Turnout

The big story for me was the collapse in voter turnout. Here in Newmarket-Aurora it was an anorexic 43.76% - down from 44.42% in the previous Provincial election on 2 June 2022. 

We do not know what would have happened if more people had voted. But, as a rule of thumb, conservatives do better when turnout is low. In fact, the lower the better.

This time, with Gallagher Murphy again boycotting candidate debates, refusing to answer legitimate questions about her behaviour towards her own employees and sticking with the simple message "Canada is not for sale" she sailed through the campaign to another easy win. 

Contrived

Doug Ford called the election 16 months early in the depths of winter claiming he needed a renewed mandate to fight Trump’s tariffs.

Yet his own riding had a pitifully low turnout of 34.4%. Two thirds of his own electors didn’t believe the hogwash about a new mandate and stayed at home.

As it stands, the PCs have three fewer MPPs than when Ford called this contrived election. (Some results are subject to recounts.)

We slept through this election and wake up to find Ford is back in the saddle for the next four years. 

But in a few months time we can expect a Federal Election in Newmarket-Aurora, though run on materially different boundaries.

We shall see what happens then.

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Note: The recently published official results from Elections Ontario differ, in some cases quite significantly, from the unofficial results published immediately after the election on 27 February 2025. The table above shows the official results for Newmarket-Aurora with the unofficial results alongside.

Updated on 9 March 2025 to include details of the new redrawn boundary of the Federal riding of Newmarket-Aurora.

Update on 18 March 2025: From TVO's Steve Paikin: Analysis: Did the Opposition Parties help Ford win another majority?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Details

Now that Doug Ford has convincingly won the “Trump tariff” election I am left wondering what he intends to do with his new mandate.  

The Progressive Conservative platform, published only days before the election and after people had already cast their ballots in advanced voting, is now required reading.

Some of Ford’s promises are, of course, total non-starters. There is absolutely no possibility that Ford can

“Deliver a new driver and transit tunnel expressway under Highway 401 to provide a new, faster route through Canada’s busiest and most gridlocked section of highway, helping thousands of daily commuters get where they need to go faster.”

It’s a non-deliverable $100 billion dollar commitment aimed at construction workers who are some of Doug’s most fervent supporters. 

More billions on health

On health – where he again promises to spend billions - will the Ford Government underwrite the cost of a new Southlake? Unless the Provincial Government’s longstanding policy is changed, the Province will not pay for the land acquisition costs for new hospitals. So that means Southlake has got to find the money for its second site out of its own resources – or rely on a benefactor. It is not as if the Province is short of money:

“A re-elected PC government will continue to deliver on its ambitious plan for hospital expansion, with more than $50 billion to build or upgrade 50 hospitals across Ontario.”

Ford says he will be

“Encouraging municipalities to also accelerate and bring forward billions of dollars worth of planned municipal public infrastructure project tenders for roads, bridges, water and other infrastructure builds and repairs to get more people working faster and improve our economic competitiveness.”

Streamline

And to help them spend all these billions of dollars Ford says the Government

“will further streamline Ontario’s environmental assessment process”. 

I wait for details on that one.

There are, of course, all sorts of measures that never rated a mention in the PC Platform but will be dumped on us out of a clear blue sky. What if municipalities don’t move quickly enough to deliver on Ford’s agenda? What will he do? Abolish them or force them into mergers with their neighbours?

Who knows?

Gallagher Murphy walks on water

Anyway... as we all now know Dawn Gallagher Murphy has been returned as our MPP in Newmarket-Aurora. 

She endured bad publicity but followed the old dictum: "Never explain. Never complain".

She took it all on the chin and it worked. 

She got 47.4% of the vote with Chris Ballard trailing on 41.9% – a difference of 2,425 votes (but down from her winning margin of 5,602 in the June 2022 election). 

By the time of the next election we shall have forgotten all about the racist banter, the bullying and harassment.

Squeezed

The NDP and Green vote was squeezed but it wasn’t enough to make a difference. The NDP vote dropped from 12.7% in 2022 to 6.3% yesterday. The Green vote went down from 5.6% to 2.5%.

The New Blue Party, which could have eroded the PC lead, took only 1.2% of the vote down from 3.6% in 2022.

Province wide, Ford’s Progressive Conservatives took 42.9% of the popular vote – up from 40.8% in 2022.

Non voters win

More people in Newmarket-Aurora didn’t vote in yesterday’s election than did. 

Turnout Province wide was 45.4%. In Newmarket-Aurora 44.6%. (Based on Elections Ontario unofficial figures)

First-Past-the-Post is brutally efficient in delivering majority governments from a minority of the vote. As the table shows, it takes 119,364 votes to elect a Green MPP and 27,460 to elect a PC MPP. The more concentrated the vote geographically the higher the seat count.

Celebration

Last night the NDP was celebrating its return to Official Opposition status getting 27 seats on the back of 18.5% of the vote. The Liberals got 14 MPPs with 29.9% of the vote.

It seems to me the Liberals and NDP have got to reach some kind of accommodation to stop both parties from running against each other in winnable seats, splitting the vote and letting the PCs in through the middle.

Easier said than done.

But not impossible.

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