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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 05 March 2015

The figures are stark and, to my mind, unbelievable.

York Region’s Committee of the Whole is told today that employment in York Region grew by 77,000 between 2009 and 2014 – and Newmarket’s contribution was a pitiful 100. 

Staff presented the Region’s Economic and Industry Report 2014 showing Newmarket treading water for five years while Aurora, for example, chalked up an impressive additional 5,700 jobs. (Click on documents in the panel top left, navigate to York Region and open “York Region Total Employment by Municipality 2009-2014)

Disbelief as Newmarket gets the wooden spoon

Taylor shakes his head in disbelief. The police HQ moved to Aurora and that cost jobs but he doesn’t believe the figures. Neither do I. He wants the report to be referred to Newmarket staff to look into. Taylor is concerned about inaccuracies as inward investment decisions are often influenced by perceptions of the local economy and how strong it is.

The Mayor, too, is not a happy bunny. Secrecy is in his banker’s DNA. He wants to know if copies of the report are in the hands of the public!  He doesn't want this suspect information leaking out. He is told it is not on the Region's website. 

He wants the figures re-examined. They don’t add up.

Another councillor expresses concerns about employment in agriculture – which is based on a 9% return on a questionnaire sent out in a busy month for farmers. I worry about the methodology that throws up these figures.

Open data

As I am listening to these exchanges, it occurs to me we need more open data.

There is a lot of really historic stuff on York Region’s website but we need access to the data (and the algorithms) that informs policy making now – not ten years ago. York Region believes it is doing its bit. But I am sure it - and Newmarket - can do more.

The question is this. Is there a public harm in releasing data that informs policy making or is there a public good?

If there is no public harm (definition needed) then put it out there.

I shall return to open data and its virtues tomorrow.

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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 04 March 2015

Tomorrow is the big day when York Region gives its imprimatur to Newmarket’s Urban Centres Secondary Plan.

Seems to me there is a lot of smoke and mirrors in the world of planning. Everything is not quite as it appears at first glance.

Take the Plan’s Schedule 6, for example. It still has chunks of Glenway appearing in a light green colour denoting Natural Heritage Parks and Open Space (Outside of Secondary Plan Area). I realize planning moves at a glacial pace (when it suits) but we have known for a year that much of this open space is to be built over. Shouldn’t this be recorded in some way?

Future GO Rail Station

And I see on Schedules 3, 4, 5 and 6 the site of the “Future GO Transit Station” (sometimes referred to as the Future GO Rail Station). The unwary reader might believe that a GO Rail Station is to be built there at some point in the future.

Hold on! Not so fast!

If we go to the Newmarket Official Plan (Office consolidation September 2014) we learn:

The location of the “Conceptual Future Rail Station” at Mulock Drive is not intended to be specific and the identification of the final location will be subject to the applicable process and will not require an amendment to this Plan (OPA#7, By-law 2012-42).

So why not say in the Secondary Plan: “Conceptual Future GO Rail Station”?

We learned from Greg Percy’s presentation to the Metrolinx Board yesterday (3 March 2015) that one new station is being penciled in on the Barrie corridor – Downsview Park. No sign as yet of one at Mulock Drive. The knowledgeable Mr Percy also tells us that a new GO Rail Station costs between $25-$50 million, excluding land costs.

Mobility Hubs

The text of the Secondary Plan spells out the policies but these are complemented by colourful schedules, maps and plans, used to help us better understand what the authors have in mind.

So why did Newmarket planners reject a clear recommendation from Metrolinx in April 2014 to detail the study area for the anchor hub at Yonge and Davis?

“The four plans in Schedules 3 (land use), 4 (height and density), 5 (street network) and 6 (parks, open space and natural heritage) identify the two Mobility Hubs within the Newmarket Urban Centres and the conceptual Mobility Hub Station Area Plan Study Area for the Newmarket GO train station. It is recommended the conceptual Mobility Hub Area Plan Study Area for the Anchor Hub at the intersection of Yonge Street and Davis Drive be detailed on the Schedules.”

Newmarket Councillors were told by planning staff in June 2014   

“there is not going to be a circle on the map”.

No-one asked: why not?

Maybe I’ll find out tomorrow.

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Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 02 March 2015

Newmarket’s Urban Centres Secondary Plan goes up for approval by York Region’s Committee of the Whole on Thursday morning (5 March) following the conclusion of a special Council meeting on the “York Region Official Plan 5 Year Review”.

Newmarket’s plan has been endlessly revised, re-written, re-jigged and re-drafted but question marks remain. It has always been work in progress and that continues to this day. Mulock Farm and 230 Davis Drive fall into a new “Deferrals” category where decisions are put off to another day.

More modifications

The report going to the Region lists a long series of “modifications” to the Secondary Plan that was formally adopted by Newmarket in June 2014. There are new additions in bold and zillions of strikethroughs.

The covering report by regional staff is laudatory:

“The long-term vision, as detailed in the Secondary Plan, is for a vibrant urban community at build out of 33,000 residents and 32,000 jobs. However, it is understood that full build out of the Secondary Plan will likely not be achieved during the current planning horizon (2031) and is anticipated to be well beyond 2031.”

There is, of course, not the remotest possibility that full build out will happen by 2031.

Only 15 months ago, (November 2013) the Town’s expert external consultant on Glenway, Ruth Victor, was telling councillors there would be 21,000 people in the urban centres by 2031. This was her fictional account:

“There are currently approximately 2500 people living within the urban centres. It is forecasted that by 2031 this number will be approximately 21,000…. The Town currently has development applications on file for lands within the urban centres for 3,359 people. It is expected that all of these applications will be built prior to 2031, and that other applications totalling the remaining 15,141 people (21,000 – 2,500 existing – 3,359 in applications = 15,141 remaining) will also be received, approved and built prior to 2031. This assumption is based on discussion (Newmarket) staff has had with land owners within the centres related to their development plans and timings.”

Magic Circle

Last year, regional staff pushed for greater population density on the Yonge and Davis corridors to support VivaNext and the new rapidways. In a conjuring trick worthy of the Magic Circle itself, Newmarket’s planners told mystified councillors that population was being redistributed along the corridors to satisfy the region’s concerns. Overall, population numbers (33,000) and jobs (32,000) remain unchanged. The planners subsequently sought to clarify things, but failed.

In paragraph 6.3.2 of the Plan we see revised population and jobs by Character Area. I take all this with a shovel full of salt. On the face of it, these figures are impressively precise. But they are entirely spurious.

The future of Upper Canada Mall

The big question mark hovers over the future of Upper Canada Mall – one of the biggest in the Province. The intersection at Yonge and Davis is supposed to be the focus of growth in the future as the Town builds upwards. Yet planning for the Mall site has been shuffled off to the Mall’s owners – Oxford Properties – who are quite happy with the Mall as it is right now, thank you very much.

Two questions for Thursday. When did work on the Master Plan for UCM start? And when it is due to be completed?

Transit still up-in-the-air

York councillors are being told that Newmarket’s Secondary Plan:

“includes detailed mixed-use and transit-supportive policies for the defined “Major Transit Station Areas” including Newmarket’s GO Rail Station, GO Bus Terminal and each of the transit stations for the Viva Rapidways."

In fact, the future of transit in Newmarket and the Mobility Hubs is still very much up-in-the-air.

The Secondary Plan now before the Region strikes out the word “proposed” in relation to the new GO Rail Station at Mulock Drive. Where is the evidence from Metrolinx that they are planning a new station there?

Dedicated Parkland

(As an aside) we know that green space will be at a premium in the future yet the Secondary Plan “also provides for the reduction in parkland dedication where land has been dedicated to the Town to accommodate the future burying of hydro lines.”

I also see that the total amount of additional neighbourhood parkland required at build out in the Town’s North West quadrant goes up from 15.4 hectares to 17.6 hectares. Another moving target.

Summing it all up, the effusive planners at York Region tell us:

Newmarket’s Urban Centres Secondary Plan provides a tremendous city-building opportunity for the Town and Region.

That "city-building" sentiment must jar with our regional councillor, John Taylor. I recall his blog “High Rise Development in Newmarket” that he wrote when we were starting out on this tortuous journey towards the Secondary Plan.

 Remember we are the Town of Newmarket, not the City of Newmarket.

The underlining is his.

Details

Written by Gordon Prentice

Published: 02 March 2015

In April last year in a speech to the Toronto Region Board of Trade, the Premier, Kathleen Wynne, made this momentous commitment:

Over ten years, we aim to phase in electric train service every fifteen minutes on all GO lines that we own.

And in her mandate letter to Transport Minister Steven Del Duca on 25 September 2014 she said this:

“Working to transform existing GO commuter rail into a Regional Express Rail rapid transit system over the next 10 years, with the support of Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario. The system will provide 15-minute, two-way electrified service and is the cornerstone of our government’s transit plan. Your goal is to manage congestion and move people throughout the GTHA.”

Tomorrow (3 March 2015) the Metrolinx Board will be meeting to get an update on progress from the Head of GO Transit, Greg Percy. You can see his presentation here.

Percy will talk about:

“An electrified service on corridors Metrolinx owns (and Barrie is one) with 15 minute frequencies in core areas.”

But what precisely is a core area? The original commitment seems to be morphing into something else.

We learn that implementing RER (Regional Express Rail) will mean 15 rail-road grade separations, 150 km of new track and 500km of overhead catenery. That adds up to a lot of work and mountains of money.

A 15 minute service will inevitably mean hugely expensive grade separations at Green Lane and at Davis Drive. So, is a 15 minute service still on the cards for our part of the Barrie line?

Percy will also talk about “future stations”. He says an “analysis of potential locations for new stations is ongoing”. But will he have anything to say about a GO Train station at Mulock Drive? Metrolinx told me last year there are no plans for one yet Newmarket’s Secondary Plan says otherwise. This is not a trivial issue. Land values are affected when sites are earmarked for major stations or terminals.

We also learn an environmental assessment is being carried out:

for rail corridor expansion from Union to Allandale Waterfront GO Station to enable increased frequency and bi-directional service.

I am left wondering how much land is likely to be required in Newmarket for rail corridor expansion. This, alone, could be a huge undertaking.

At a time when growth in York Region is slowing markedly* I hope this will not be used as an excuse to cut back on spending on the Barrie line.

Our councillors need regular updates on the Regional Express Rail programme and how it will impact on our town. Unless they speak out strongly - with their colleagues at York Region - we could all be left behind.

*York Region’s 2015 Fiscal Strategy tells us growth and DC collections continue to trend lower than originally forecast. A paper that went to the Committee of the Whole on 19 February 2015 says this:  “The Region’s population has been characterised by alternating periods of robust and more moderate growth. While the population continues to increase, the rate of growth has moderated significantly from the levels seen in the early 2000s. In recent years, York Region’s population growth has been less than earlier forecasts. Since 2011, the Region has been growing at an estimated rate of 22.8 thousand people per year, approximately 12% less than the 2010 Official Plan forecast for the period 2011-2016.