Éric Grenier, the brains behind the CBC’s Poll Tracker, says the Liberals remain on track for a majority win. 

In his latest post this morning – the day after Trump announced his global tariffs – Grenier says:

“The Liberals are leading the Conservatives by roughly six points nationwide and would be heavily favoured to win a majority government if an election were held today. The New Democrats and Bloc Québécois, struggling to make headway in the polls, are on track to suffer significant seat losses.”

Leaning towards Liberals

For the past three days Grenier's model has moved Newmarket-Aurora from being a toss-up between the Liberals and the Conservatives to leaning towards the Liberals with a Conservative win still a possibility.

He defines “leaning” this way:

"The party is projected to be leaning and has a good chance of winning the seat, with odds ranging from roughly 68% to 95%."

Philippe Fournier of 338Canada.ca says the Liberals have climbed to their highest projection since the height of the pandemic.

“This second week of the federal campaign shows – on average – no tightening of the race, but rather a widening of the gap between the main parties…”

Collapse

The ascendancy of the Liberals has been fuelled by the collapse in the projected NDP vote.

Here in Newmarket-Aurora we have a completely invisible NDP candidate, Anna Gollen, who was selected, acclaimed and imposed by the Party High Command. The local Party is moribund.

Her name does not yet appear on the list of approved NDP candidates (as of 3 April 2025). 

Missing candidates

Indeed the list only shows 205 candidates running for a Parliament with 343 seats (up from 338). This means that only 60% of ridings currently have an NDP candidate. Nominations close on 7 April 2025 and to get on the ballot paper a candidate must receive the endorsement of 100 electors. No mean task for a complete unknown.

The federal Conservatives and their cousins, the provincial progressive conservatives, have historically benefitted from a split in the vote on the centre-left.

It would be a tragedy if this happened yet again in Newmarket-Aurora where the insertion into the election of a completely unknown NDP appointee were to tip the balance and deliver the seat to the Conservatives.

Tariff Election

Trump’s tariff war has produced a major (if temporary) realignment in Party loyalties. 

And Mark Carney is seen as being the man of the moment.

In the right place at the right time.

People are pragmatically choosing the Liberals as the best available bulwark against the utter madness of Donald Trump.

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