Last week, more people in Newmarket-Aurora didn’t vote for Dawn Gallagher Murphy than did. But she was still 2,537 votes ahead of her only serious challenger, the former Liberal Cabinet minister, Chris Ballard. 
But if the vote for the centrist Liberals (17,723) had combined with the vote for the NDP (2,709) then, interestingly, the Progressive Conservatives' Gallagher Murphy (20,260) would have lost to my hypothetical LibDipper by 172 votes.
Of course, this is just a daydream. We are doomed to see this election outcome replayed again and again until the centre left parties get their act together. Too often the Liberals and NDP see themselves as mortal enemies who repeatedly split the vote allowing the PCs to waltz through the middle.
Mapping support for the Parties
Voting for the conservatives was, as usual, heaviest in Stonehaven and Copper Hills and the south eastern part of the riding. The Liberals did better in their traditional territory, the central spine of the riding between Yonge and Bayview with support concentrated in the old downtown area with its leafy streets and character. The NDP did not poll above 10% in any polling division.
The Liberals had the highest vote in the advance polls. The full results are here with details of voting at retirement homes, condos and other specially designated polling places.
Voter Turnout
The big story for me was the collapse in voter turnout. Here in Newmarket-Aurora it was an anorexic 43.76% - down from 44.42% in the previous Provincial election on 2 June 2022.
We do not know what would have happened if more people had voted. But, as a rule of thumb, conservatives do better when turnout is low. In fact, the lower the better.
This time, with Gallagher Murphy again boycotting candidate debates, refusing to answer legitimate questions about her behaviour towards her own employees and sticking with the simple message "Canada is not for sale" she sailed through the campaign to another easy win. 
Contrived
Doug Ford called the election 16 months early in the depths of winter claiming he needed a renewed mandate to fight Trump’s tariffs.
Yet his own riding had a pitifully low turnout of 34.4%. Two thirds of his own electors didn’t believe the hogwash about a new mandate and stayed at home.
As it stands, the PCs have three fewer MPPs than when Ford called this contrived election. (Some results are subject to recounts.)
We slept through this election and wake up to find Ford is back in the saddle for the next four years.
But in a few months time we can expect a Federal Election in Newmarket-Aurora, though run on materially different boundaries.
We shall see what happens then.
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Note: The recently published official results from Elections Ontario differ, in some cases quite significantly, from the unofficial results published immediately after the election on 27 February 2025. The table above shows the official results for Newmarket-Aurora with the unofficial results alongside.
Updated on 9 March 2025 to include details of the new redrawn boundary of the Federal riding of Newmarket-Aurora.
Update on 18 March 2025: From TVO's Steve Paikin: Analysis: Did the Opposition Parties help Ford win another majority?
